Mr KIELY - 2003-02-19
Would the Treasurer outline what effects the revision to the Territory’s population estimates will have on Territory funding from the federal government?
ANSWER
Madam Speaker, I thank the member for Sanderson for this very important question. Members would be aware that the Territory is far more reliant on revenue from the Commonwealth government than any other jurisdiction in Australia. There are two key determinants that affect that funding level that we receive from the Commonwealth. The first is the relativities, recommended by the Commonwealth Grants Commission. The commission’s new relativities for 2003-04 are expected to be received at the end of next week, and that is something that we look forward to, obviously, with a great deal of interest.
The second determinant is the Territory’s estimated resident population. Small changes in either the relativities on the one hand, or the Territory’s population on the other, can affect our funding level from the Commonwealth to a far greater degree than similar changes for other jurisdictions because of our greater reliance. If unchanged, the revised population estimates would have a substantial effect on the Territory’s funding and could result in a reduction in 2002-03, and future years, of between $20m and $25m. That would seriously restrict the Territory’s fiscal capacity and our ability to respond to future financial pressures.
Revised estimated resident population figures for the Territory from the most recent August 2001 Census, just prior to the election of this government, were released yesterday. Members would know that the Territory’s population base is confirmed following each census and, between each census, the ABS estimates annual increases in population. In May 2002, the ABS released preliminary estimates from the census. Those estimates showed that the previous ABS estimates of interstate migration have been too low over the five years from the 1996 Census by 1.2%.
However, the estimates released yesterday by the ABS revised the increase from the 1996 Census to only 0.25% greater than the previous estimates. That result does not demonstrate a decline in the Territory’s population so much as the ABS re-basing its estimate of the population. It is widely acknowledged - and the member for Katherine alluded to it by way of interjection before - that the Territory’s population is extremely difficult to estimate, both at census time and on the inter-census periods where ABS is making these revisions.
The difficulties at census time, in that collection on that given period, are related to the reliability of population counts in respect of the Territory’s highest in Australia proportion of indigenous people, most of whom live in rural and very remote areas; and the higher than average proportion of dwellings from which a census is not returned. Now, both of these mean that the population estimates for the Territory are not as reliable as other jurisdictions and tend to underestimate the population.
I will give you an example. If the ABS does not get a form returned from a particular house and they say: ‘We will put three down’, or ‘We’ll put two-and-a-half down’, that may be okay for Melbourne, Sydney, your southern capitals. It is not okay in many of our remote communities where there is a considerably higher number than two-and-a-half or three - try 15, 18, or 20 in some of these communities. So, we miss out there to whatever degree those forms are not returned, and we get that underestimation.
On an annual basis, the high levels of interstate migration, both to and from the Territory, mean that estimates of the annual movements are not as reliable as for other jurisdictions. That release yesterday by the ABS continues to show volatility in the Territory’s population estimates. Unfortunately, the underlying detailed information supporting these revised estimates is unlikely to be received for at least a month from ABS, which makes it pretty difficult to respond to what the ABS are doing by way of these revisions when we do not have the base information to challenge those returns. However, there are considerable concerns with at least two aspects of the estimates, particularly the adjustment associated with dwellings where a census has not been returned, and revised migration data. We will be taking both those matters up with ABS, clearly as a matter of urgency.
It is also important to remember that the other key factor affecting our funding levels for 2003-04 is the relativities prepared by the Commonwealth Grants Commission, and they will be released late next week. The combined effect of the new relativities and the revised population estimates will form the basis for funding levels from 2003-04, and will be finally agreed at the annual Treasurers Conference scheduled for 28 March - clearly a meeting with some import for the Northern Territory.
The revision of these figures is of great concern to the government and we will fight, obviously, very hard on behalf of all Territorians to put our case very clearly. Treasury put estimates together over the years, and the member for Katherine said we used to disagree with them on that, and it was not the case. It was my understanding the opposition very clearly understood. We represented, in the main, the rural communities who were unaccounted. We understood the difficulties that the ABS had in its census; we know how shabbily it was done in our own backyards from contact with our constituents. It is a little different to walking around the suburbs of Brennan and counting the number of people, when you are out in some of the more remote reaches of the Territory.
We understood - and it is churlish of the former Treasurer to suggest that we did not have some understanding of the government’s position on this. We understood that they used to take it back to the federal government on a repeat basis as, indeed, we will. I do not doubt that many of the same arguments will have to be re-run. I hope I can prosecute them a little better than you obviously did in all of the times that you had to take these arguments to the Commonwealth on behalf of the Northern Territory.
It needs to be clear that the effect of this revision will, obviously, further reduce this government’s flexibility in meeting our deficit reduction strategy, and it is something that we, as a government, clearly hold very important. However, we do, at the same time, remain saddled with the legacy of these guys - absolute economic mismanagement from about 1996 on, but most notably those last couple of years, which left us, in coming into government initially, with about $126m short. Whatever difficulties we have now, Territorians will not forget that. They will not forget the deceit, and the contempt that the CLP held Territorians with in the way that they mismanaged the economy.
ANSWER
Madam Speaker, I thank the member for Sanderson for this very important question. Members would be aware that the Territory is far more reliant on revenue from the Commonwealth government than any other jurisdiction in Australia. There are two key determinants that affect that funding level that we receive from the Commonwealth. The first is the relativities, recommended by the Commonwealth Grants Commission. The commission’s new relativities for 2003-04 are expected to be received at the end of next week, and that is something that we look forward to, obviously, with a great deal of interest.
The second determinant is the Territory’s estimated resident population. Small changes in either the relativities on the one hand, or the Territory’s population on the other, can affect our funding level from the Commonwealth to a far greater degree than similar changes for other jurisdictions because of our greater reliance. If unchanged, the revised population estimates would have a substantial effect on the Territory’s funding and could result in a reduction in 2002-03, and future years, of between $20m and $25m. That would seriously restrict the Territory’s fiscal capacity and our ability to respond to future financial pressures.
Revised estimated resident population figures for the Territory from the most recent August 2001 Census, just prior to the election of this government, were released yesterday. Members would know that the Territory’s population base is confirmed following each census and, between each census, the ABS estimates annual increases in population. In May 2002, the ABS released preliminary estimates from the census. Those estimates showed that the previous ABS estimates of interstate migration have been too low over the five years from the 1996 Census by 1.2%.
However, the estimates released yesterday by the ABS revised the increase from the 1996 Census to only 0.25% greater than the previous estimates. That result does not demonstrate a decline in the Territory’s population so much as the ABS re-basing its estimate of the population. It is widely acknowledged - and the member for Katherine alluded to it by way of interjection before - that the Territory’s population is extremely difficult to estimate, both at census time and on the inter-census periods where ABS is making these revisions.
The difficulties at census time, in that collection on that given period, are related to the reliability of population counts in respect of the Territory’s highest in Australia proportion of indigenous people, most of whom live in rural and very remote areas; and the higher than average proportion of dwellings from which a census is not returned. Now, both of these mean that the population estimates for the Territory are not as reliable as other jurisdictions and tend to underestimate the population.
I will give you an example. If the ABS does not get a form returned from a particular house and they say: ‘We will put three down’, or ‘We’ll put two-and-a-half down’, that may be okay for Melbourne, Sydney, your southern capitals. It is not okay in many of our remote communities where there is a considerably higher number than two-and-a-half or three - try 15, 18, or 20 in some of these communities. So, we miss out there to whatever degree those forms are not returned, and we get that underestimation.
On an annual basis, the high levels of interstate migration, both to and from the Territory, mean that estimates of the annual movements are not as reliable as for other jurisdictions. That release yesterday by the ABS continues to show volatility in the Territory’s population estimates. Unfortunately, the underlying detailed information supporting these revised estimates is unlikely to be received for at least a month from ABS, which makes it pretty difficult to respond to what the ABS are doing by way of these revisions when we do not have the base information to challenge those returns. However, there are considerable concerns with at least two aspects of the estimates, particularly the adjustment associated with dwellings where a census has not been returned, and revised migration data. We will be taking both those matters up with ABS, clearly as a matter of urgency.
It is also important to remember that the other key factor affecting our funding levels for 2003-04 is the relativities prepared by the Commonwealth Grants Commission, and they will be released late next week. The combined effect of the new relativities and the revised population estimates will form the basis for funding levels from 2003-04, and will be finally agreed at the annual Treasurers Conference scheduled for 28 March - clearly a meeting with some import for the Northern Territory.
The revision of these figures is of great concern to the government and we will fight, obviously, very hard on behalf of all Territorians to put our case very clearly. Treasury put estimates together over the years, and the member for Katherine said we used to disagree with them on that, and it was not the case. It was my understanding the opposition very clearly understood. We represented, in the main, the rural communities who were unaccounted. We understood the difficulties that the ABS had in its census; we know how shabbily it was done in our own backyards from contact with our constituents. It is a little different to walking around the suburbs of Brennan and counting the number of people, when you are out in some of the more remote reaches of the Territory.
We understood - and it is churlish of the former Treasurer to suggest that we did not have some understanding of the government’s position on this. We understood that they used to take it back to the federal government on a repeat basis as, indeed, we will. I do not doubt that many of the same arguments will have to be re-run. I hope I can prosecute them a little better than you obviously did in all of the times that you had to take these arguments to the Commonwealth on behalf of the Northern Territory.
It needs to be clear that the effect of this revision will, obviously, further reduce this government’s flexibility in meeting our deficit reduction strategy, and it is something that we, as a government, clearly hold very important. However, we do, at the same time, remain saddled with the legacy of these guys - absolute economic mismanagement from about 1996 on, but most notably those last couple of years, which left us, in coming into government initially, with about $126m short. Whatever difficulties we have now, Territorians will not forget that. They will not forget the deceit, and the contempt that the CLP held Territorians with in the way that they mismanaged the economy.
Last updated: 09 Aug 2016