Mr REED - 2003-02-19
Madam Speaker, I first seek leave to table a copy of the Treasurer’s 2002-03 Mid-Year Report, something that he should have done, particularly for the media.
Leave granted.
Mr REED: My question follows the advice from the Treasurer that the Territory will be short $25m to $30m, as a result of the population loss, in GST disbursements from the Commonwealth to the Territory in future years. It also follows the comment by the Chief Minister that she is not certain of the figures. I ask the Treasurer if he will give her a copy of his report that was placed on the Internet this morning, but not generally circulated, in which he says:
Population estimates for the Territory have recently been revised downward from the 2002-03 budget forecast due to
higher estimates of interstate migration from the Territory. This has resulted in a $6m reduction in the GST revenue
estimate for 2002-03. This lower than expected population growth compounds throughout the forward estimates period
with GST revenue estimates declining by $19m in 2005-06, and an overall reduction of $51m over the forward estimates
period.
Treasurer, why did you announce in parliament today that the effect was $25m to $30m when, in fact, it is $51m in your report under your new fiscal integrity legislation?
ANSWER
Madam Speaker, these ABS revision figures only came out yesterday. I am not sure whether the member for Katherine, the former Treasurer, is trying to allege that somehow we have cooked the figures of what the population estimate ought to be, and somehow claim that we would receive greater revenue from the Commonwealth than we otherwise might. I can assure him that is not the case. This is not a fight that we have lost or are walking away from.
In my previous answer, I went to some of the difficulties in establishing true levels of population estimates in the Northern Territory. The ABS, as we know, in between the census period used, for example, Medicare and Defence data to measure interstate migration. We have a higher level of transience in the Territory than anywhere else. Many of them are young and are on the move around Australia, sometimes on working holidays, in and out of the construction and nursing industries. Many of them simply do not have Medicare records, so they are not picked up by the ABS data measuring.
Mr REED: A point of order, Madam Speaker! This has nothing to do with Medicare. This is to do with the Treasurer’s report that he released today. He told us formerly that it was $25m to $30m; his report says $51m. Has he misled the House?
Madam SPEAKER: Treasurer, would you address the question.
Mr STIRLING: I have not misled the House at all. The figure today that I used in my answer was $20m to $25m that we are facing this year.
Mr Reed: No, it was $25m to $30m.
Mr STIRLING: Ongoing, $20m to $25m, if we do not get a sudden upwards revision of the population estimate. He is suggesting that this is all over red rover, and we have been done. That is probably the attitude that the CLP took when they were in these corners. I can assure him and all Territorians that, when I get down there with my fellow Treasurers on 28 March, I will be having plenty to say. I will be having a bit to say to the federal Treasurer before I get there on 28 March, along with some discussions with ABS. However, to have it that we are just going to walk away from this argument without picking it up with the ABS and the federal government, and the meeting on 28 March, is not the case. We have not given up; we have not even begun to fight, let alone throw in the towel. There is a long way to go on this.
They may have failed over all the years they were in government - I guess they got tired of going every year, trying to run the same arguments to the Commonwealth year in, year out - but we are fresh and eager to have a go. We are pretty keen to get the real facts in relation to population estimates in the Northern Territory. We will get to the bottom of this, and get some accuracy from ABS, and we will see what the outcome is in the finish.
Madam SPEAKER: I will call the member for Barkly next, but could I remind members to not refer to people by their Christian names. You know that is against standing orders.
Leave granted.
Mr REED: My question follows the advice from the Treasurer that the Territory will be short $25m to $30m, as a result of the population loss, in GST disbursements from the Commonwealth to the Territory in future years. It also follows the comment by the Chief Minister that she is not certain of the figures. I ask the Treasurer if he will give her a copy of his report that was placed on the Internet this morning, but not generally circulated, in which he says:
Population estimates for the Territory have recently been revised downward from the 2002-03 budget forecast due to
higher estimates of interstate migration from the Territory. This has resulted in a $6m reduction in the GST revenue
estimate for 2002-03. This lower than expected population growth compounds throughout the forward estimates period
with GST revenue estimates declining by $19m in 2005-06, and an overall reduction of $51m over the forward estimates
period.
Treasurer, why did you announce in parliament today that the effect was $25m to $30m when, in fact, it is $51m in your report under your new fiscal integrity legislation?
ANSWER
Madam Speaker, these ABS revision figures only came out yesterday. I am not sure whether the member for Katherine, the former Treasurer, is trying to allege that somehow we have cooked the figures of what the population estimate ought to be, and somehow claim that we would receive greater revenue from the Commonwealth than we otherwise might. I can assure him that is not the case. This is not a fight that we have lost or are walking away from.
In my previous answer, I went to some of the difficulties in establishing true levels of population estimates in the Northern Territory. The ABS, as we know, in between the census period used, for example, Medicare and Defence data to measure interstate migration. We have a higher level of transience in the Territory than anywhere else. Many of them are young and are on the move around Australia, sometimes on working holidays, in and out of the construction and nursing industries. Many of them simply do not have Medicare records, so they are not picked up by the ABS data measuring.
Mr REED: A point of order, Madam Speaker! This has nothing to do with Medicare. This is to do with the Treasurer’s report that he released today. He told us formerly that it was $25m to $30m; his report says $51m. Has he misled the House?
Madam SPEAKER: Treasurer, would you address the question.
Mr STIRLING: I have not misled the House at all. The figure today that I used in my answer was $20m to $25m that we are facing this year.
Mr Reed: No, it was $25m to $30m.
Mr STIRLING: Ongoing, $20m to $25m, if we do not get a sudden upwards revision of the population estimate. He is suggesting that this is all over red rover, and we have been done. That is probably the attitude that the CLP took when they were in these corners. I can assure him and all Territorians that, when I get down there with my fellow Treasurers on 28 March, I will be having plenty to say. I will be having a bit to say to the federal Treasurer before I get there on 28 March, along with some discussions with ABS. However, to have it that we are just going to walk away from this argument without picking it up with the ABS and the federal government, and the meeting on 28 March, is not the case. We have not given up; we have not even begun to fight, let alone throw in the towel. There is a long way to go on this.
They may have failed over all the years they were in government - I guess they got tired of going every year, trying to run the same arguments to the Commonwealth year in, year out - but we are fresh and eager to have a go. We are pretty keen to get the real facts in relation to population estimates in the Northern Territory. We will get to the bottom of this, and get some accuracy from ABS, and we will see what the outcome is in the finish.
Madam SPEAKER: I will call the member for Barkly next, but could I remind members to not refer to people by their Christian names. You know that is against standing orders.
Last updated: 09 Aug 2016