Mr ELFERINK - 2000-08-09
The opposition is now focussing on the end-of-the-world scenario, moving on from the introduction of the Commonwealth’s new tax system. Now the opposition is suggesting that the Northern Territory economy has been razed to the ground and lies in ruins. Can the Treasurer reassure Territorians and this House that the economy is indeed getting stronger?
ANSWER
I can indeed, Mr Speaker. Not only can I, but the government has a responsibility to do so, particularly in the light of the irresponsible remarks made yesterday by the shadow treasurer and opposition members. It is incumbent on the government to explain to Territorians the underlying strength of our economy, the opportunities that exist here and the prospects for the future - their brightness compared with the rest of Australia, particularly in terms of investment and employment and the underlying state of the economy.
We have to bear in mind that the Leader of the Opposition has just come out of a year or so of doom-and-gloom propositions with regard to the new tax system. You will recall that in previous sittings this year and late last year the Leader of the Opposition was predicting the commencement of the second ice age on 1 July, to come about at the same time as the introduction of the new tax system. She has since been to Hobart and Kim has told her: ‘Sorry, that was a bit of a flop, Clare. You will have to find something else to pursue’.
In addition to that, of course, while she was in Hobart last week she got the dreadful kick about mandatory sentencing when Kim said: ‘I will have mandatory sentencing in Western Australia, but we don’t really care about you, Clare. You’re not having it in the Northern Territory. We will override it when we come to power’. That is the background to why the Leader of the Opposition is taking the unfortunate and very irresponsible approach that she took yesterday.
The Leader of the Opposition’s position is a very responsible one. The ability to create unrest and to generate unnecessary concern in the community, as she could well do if she continued the remarks of the kind that she made yesterday, is very real. It is incumbent on this government - notwithstanding the fact that she is not even listening - that we demonstrate to Territorians the strength of the economy and the ability for them to prosper. I will proceed now to do that.
If we start with the ABS figures for wage and salary earners in the Territory for the March quarter this year, they are a very good indicator of the strength of the economy. The ABS found that total Territory wage and salary earners increased by 8.2% in the March quarter compared to the same quarter last year. In figure terms, that meant an increase from 69 100 people employed in the Territory to 74 800 this year - very sound figures. No sign there of a recession.
The ABS found this was the net result of a significant increase in private sector employment of 10.5% compounded by a 3.3% increase in public sector employment. That is very important. We have to recognise, and the Leader of the Opposition should recognise, that the engine room of the economy is the private sector. For her to attempt to undermine their confidence is an indictment on her holding of a responsible office.
That also follows on the ANZ Bank job ad survey which found 288 job advertisements were published in July. That was 35.4% up on the July figure last year. I table a copy of the article in the NT News yesterday that carried that story. The July 2000 result was a 35.5% increase on the July figure last year. That is not the sign of a recession.
The opposition has a newly-discovered measure of recession. Bear in mind this is how the Leader of the Opposition operates. She does have priors for this. ‘Let’s go through all the statistical data and information that we can and find something that we can manipulate to our political advantage’. That is what she did yesterday in citing the state final demand figures, without the qualification used by Access Economics this morning in the newspaper, which were quite responsible. They said you could say that there is a technical recession and then they explained why. But the Leader of the Opposition and shadow treasurer neither suggested why the statement should be qualified nor gave any reason as to why there could appear to be a technical recession.
The example, of course, that the Access Economics report gave was that coming off the activity of Timor - the economy was certainly benefiting from that - we have shown a drop back to more normal levels of activity. In addition to that, as the Chief Minister indicated, there was $1.3bn worth of activity with the offshore facility. That was done in Singapore, of course, and the ABS treatment of the expenditure meant it affected several quarters of figures – three or four quarters as portrayed by the Leader of the Opposition. That considerable investment continues to have an impact as state final demand settles back to its normal levels. While that expenditure actually occurred in Singapore it was counted against the Territory’s gross fixed capital formation and was identifiable in Australia’s balance of payments. So the figures should be qualified and she should understand what she is talking about.
A more meaningful indication, I think, is a 4.9% increase in yearly household consumption, against a figure for national consumption of 4.2%. If Territorians are spending 4.9% in household consumption and the national figure is 4.2%, again it is hardly a sign of a lack of confidence and not a sign of a recession.
Mr TOYNE: A point of order, Mr Speaker! We are now 20 minutes into Question Time.
Mr SPEAKER: There is no point of order.
Mr REED: Mr Speaker, I apologise to members of the House for the time taken on this, but it is a very, very important issue. It gets to the nub of the confidence of the business community in the Northern Territory. This government has a responsibility to demonstrate quite clearly and quite factually the erroneous comments that were made by the Leader of the Opposition and shadow treasurer yesterday. We will do that on behalf of the business community and Territorians.
In short, Labor has sifted through the economic data and statistics to find something that they can misrepresent. Politics is one thing - we can accept that. But when the politics gets into the gutter and the Leader of the Opposition is potentially disrupting the confidence of the business community and Territorians generally, that is when the line has to be drawn. That is why this answer is being given in such detail.
Added to the matters that I have just raised, Access predicts the Territory economy to continue as the fastest-growing economy. By interjection while the Chief Minister was speaking, the member for Stuart and the Leader of the Opposition and the Deputy Leader were saying: ‘What about Access Economics?’. They asked the question.
‘Resource-based States Bask in the Sun Again’. This is from the Australian Financial Review, in a report on 16 July, page 42:
The ‘sun belt’ economies of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have regained the lead in economic growth, according to a survey of state economic forecasts by …
By whom? Access Economics. It is interesting that they never quote the positive remarks. You never hear them get up and say anything supportive of the business community or supportive of what is happening in the Northern Territory. If they can twist something around statistically to their advantage they are straight into the gutter – indeed, into the sewer. I read on:
While the resource-based economies surge, the more inward-looking economies fall behind the national average. The average forecast for real-output growth in Victoria in 2000-01 is 2.85% compared with a national average of 3.2%. South Australia is forecast to grow 2.1%, while Tasmania grows only 1.6%.
This trend in favour of the resource-based states is expected to dominate economic growth rates over the next three years with the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland turning in growth rates above the national average …
In every state and territory except the Northern Territory, the private short-term forecasts are less optimistic than the official ones.
So there is a high level of confidence out there in terms of what the business community think rather than what the opposition are saying. I table that. It is very important because the Leader of the Opposition might get to read it.
Mr Toyne: Sit down!
Mr REED: I will not sit down. There are more important matters to be raised. They do not like hearing it, but I am again compelled to point out to members opposite that the Territory economy as measured by ABS through the gross rate product increased by 7.6% in 1998-99, the best result of any jurisdiction. The national economy increased by 4.5%. We have a result of 7.6%, New South Wales 4.1%, Victoria 6.2%, Queensland 4.5%, South Australia 2.1%, Western Australia 2.1%, Tasmania 2.5% and ACT 2.6%. If we are in recession, they are dead. They are economically dead. They need the Requiem Mass.
But can you get that through to the Leader of the Opposition? No, you never will. But what I have done today is put it on the record. I know that the business community are aghast at the tragedy of the remarks that were made by the Leader of the Opposition yesterday. I have clearly demonstrated to those people listening, if not the members opposite, that we have a strong economy. The foundations and the basis on which that economy exists are fundamentally very sound.
In most cases we are ahead of the national average and ahead of most of the states. In terms of the opportunities to get a job, it is better here than anywhere else. We have lower unemployment in the Territory than any other jurisdiction. We have higher economic growth than any other jurisdiction and we have better opportunities for Territorians than any other jurisdiction. Further, we have a bright future with the biggest infrastructure project about to commence in the construction of the railway, $1.2bn, and the offshore resources that have been proved in the oil and gas industries - not being explored at the moment but having been proved as a resource. Over the next decade we will see them developed.
So we are not only on a sound basis at the moment in terms of our economy, we are in a very good position to go forward and see further strong growth and development. This government rejects, as it responsibly should, any suggestion by the opposition that this economy in the Northern Territory is in any form of recession.
Mr SPEAKER: I make the point that we have had two questions in Question Time. The first answer took over 9 minutes, the second 12 minutes. They are too long and would best be handled by ministerial statements. I believe that we ought to be able to keep our answers much shorter. While I think those answers were relevant to the questions, I think that they can be maintained at a much lesser time limit.
ANSWER
I can indeed, Mr Speaker. Not only can I, but the government has a responsibility to do so, particularly in the light of the irresponsible remarks made yesterday by the shadow treasurer and opposition members. It is incumbent on the government to explain to Territorians the underlying strength of our economy, the opportunities that exist here and the prospects for the future - their brightness compared with the rest of Australia, particularly in terms of investment and employment and the underlying state of the economy.
We have to bear in mind that the Leader of the Opposition has just come out of a year or so of doom-and-gloom propositions with regard to the new tax system. You will recall that in previous sittings this year and late last year the Leader of the Opposition was predicting the commencement of the second ice age on 1 July, to come about at the same time as the introduction of the new tax system. She has since been to Hobart and Kim has told her: ‘Sorry, that was a bit of a flop, Clare. You will have to find something else to pursue’.
In addition to that, of course, while she was in Hobart last week she got the dreadful kick about mandatory sentencing when Kim said: ‘I will have mandatory sentencing in Western Australia, but we don’t really care about you, Clare. You’re not having it in the Northern Territory. We will override it when we come to power’. That is the background to why the Leader of the Opposition is taking the unfortunate and very irresponsible approach that she took yesterday.
The Leader of the Opposition’s position is a very responsible one. The ability to create unrest and to generate unnecessary concern in the community, as she could well do if she continued the remarks of the kind that she made yesterday, is very real. It is incumbent on this government - notwithstanding the fact that she is not even listening - that we demonstrate to Territorians the strength of the economy and the ability for them to prosper. I will proceed now to do that.
If we start with the ABS figures for wage and salary earners in the Territory for the March quarter this year, they are a very good indicator of the strength of the economy. The ABS found that total Territory wage and salary earners increased by 8.2% in the March quarter compared to the same quarter last year. In figure terms, that meant an increase from 69 100 people employed in the Territory to 74 800 this year - very sound figures. No sign there of a recession.
The ABS found this was the net result of a significant increase in private sector employment of 10.5% compounded by a 3.3% increase in public sector employment. That is very important. We have to recognise, and the Leader of the Opposition should recognise, that the engine room of the economy is the private sector. For her to attempt to undermine their confidence is an indictment on her holding of a responsible office.
That also follows on the ANZ Bank job ad survey which found 288 job advertisements were published in July. That was 35.4% up on the July figure last year. I table a copy of the article in the NT News yesterday that carried that story. The July 2000 result was a 35.5% increase on the July figure last year. That is not the sign of a recession.
The opposition has a newly-discovered measure of recession. Bear in mind this is how the Leader of the Opposition operates. She does have priors for this. ‘Let’s go through all the statistical data and information that we can and find something that we can manipulate to our political advantage’. That is what she did yesterday in citing the state final demand figures, without the qualification used by Access Economics this morning in the newspaper, which were quite responsible. They said you could say that there is a technical recession and then they explained why. But the Leader of the Opposition and shadow treasurer neither suggested why the statement should be qualified nor gave any reason as to why there could appear to be a technical recession.
The example, of course, that the Access Economics report gave was that coming off the activity of Timor - the economy was certainly benefiting from that - we have shown a drop back to more normal levels of activity. In addition to that, as the Chief Minister indicated, there was $1.3bn worth of activity with the offshore facility. That was done in Singapore, of course, and the ABS treatment of the expenditure meant it affected several quarters of figures – three or four quarters as portrayed by the Leader of the Opposition. That considerable investment continues to have an impact as state final demand settles back to its normal levels. While that expenditure actually occurred in Singapore it was counted against the Territory’s gross fixed capital formation and was identifiable in Australia’s balance of payments. So the figures should be qualified and she should understand what she is talking about.
A more meaningful indication, I think, is a 4.9% increase in yearly household consumption, against a figure for national consumption of 4.2%. If Territorians are spending 4.9% in household consumption and the national figure is 4.2%, again it is hardly a sign of a lack of confidence and not a sign of a recession.
Mr TOYNE: A point of order, Mr Speaker! We are now 20 minutes into Question Time.
Mr SPEAKER: There is no point of order.
Mr REED: Mr Speaker, I apologise to members of the House for the time taken on this, but it is a very, very important issue. It gets to the nub of the confidence of the business community in the Northern Territory. This government has a responsibility to demonstrate quite clearly and quite factually the erroneous comments that were made by the Leader of the Opposition and shadow treasurer yesterday. We will do that on behalf of the business community and Territorians.
In short, Labor has sifted through the economic data and statistics to find something that they can misrepresent. Politics is one thing - we can accept that. But when the politics gets into the gutter and the Leader of the Opposition is potentially disrupting the confidence of the business community and Territorians generally, that is when the line has to be drawn. That is why this answer is being given in such detail.
Added to the matters that I have just raised, Access predicts the Territory economy to continue as the fastest-growing economy. By interjection while the Chief Minister was speaking, the member for Stuart and the Leader of the Opposition and the Deputy Leader were saying: ‘What about Access Economics?’. They asked the question.
‘Resource-based States Bask in the Sun Again’. This is from the Australian Financial Review, in a report on 16 July, page 42:
The ‘sun belt’ economies of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have regained the lead in economic growth, according to a survey of state economic forecasts by …
By whom? Access Economics. It is interesting that they never quote the positive remarks. You never hear them get up and say anything supportive of the business community or supportive of what is happening in the Northern Territory. If they can twist something around statistically to their advantage they are straight into the gutter – indeed, into the sewer. I read on:
While the resource-based economies surge, the more inward-looking economies fall behind the national average. The average forecast for real-output growth in Victoria in 2000-01 is 2.85% compared with a national average of 3.2%. South Australia is forecast to grow 2.1%, while Tasmania grows only 1.6%.
This trend in favour of the resource-based states is expected to dominate economic growth rates over the next three years with the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland turning in growth rates above the national average …
In every state and territory except the Northern Territory, the private short-term forecasts are less optimistic than the official ones.
So there is a high level of confidence out there in terms of what the business community think rather than what the opposition are saying. I table that. It is very important because the Leader of the Opposition might get to read it.
Mr Toyne: Sit down!
Mr REED: I will not sit down. There are more important matters to be raised. They do not like hearing it, but I am again compelled to point out to members opposite that the Territory economy as measured by ABS through the gross rate product increased by 7.6% in 1998-99, the best result of any jurisdiction. The national economy increased by 4.5%. We have a result of 7.6%, New South Wales 4.1%, Victoria 6.2%, Queensland 4.5%, South Australia 2.1%, Western Australia 2.1%, Tasmania 2.5% and ACT 2.6%. If we are in recession, they are dead. They are economically dead. They need the Requiem Mass.
But can you get that through to the Leader of the Opposition? No, you never will. But what I have done today is put it on the record. I know that the business community are aghast at the tragedy of the remarks that were made by the Leader of the Opposition yesterday. I have clearly demonstrated to those people listening, if not the members opposite, that we have a strong economy. The foundations and the basis on which that economy exists are fundamentally very sound.
In most cases we are ahead of the national average and ahead of most of the states. In terms of the opportunities to get a job, it is better here than anywhere else. We have lower unemployment in the Territory than any other jurisdiction. We have higher economic growth than any other jurisdiction and we have better opportunities for Territorians than any other jurisdiction. Further, we have a bright future with the biggest infrastructure project about to commence in the construction of the railway, $1.2bn, and the offshore resources that have been proved in the oil and gas industries - not being explored at the moment but having been proved as a resource. Over the next decade we will see them developed.
So we are not only on a sound basis at the moment in terms of our economy, we are in a very good position to go forward and see further strong growth and development. This government rejects, as it responsibly should, any suggestion by the opposition that this economy in the Northern Territory is in any form of recession.
Mr SPEAKER: I make the point that we have had two questions in Question Time. The first answer took over 9 minutes, the second 12 minutes. They are too long and would best be handled by ministerial statements. I believe that we ought to be able to keep our answers much shorter. While I think those answers were relevant to the questions, I think that they can be maintained at a much lesser time limit.
Last updated: 09 Aug 2016